South Korea's inflation accelerated in January at the fastest pace in more than three years as costs of industrial goods and fuel rose following a surge in crude oil prices.
The consumer price index rose 3.9 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.6 percent gain in December, the statistics office said in Gwacheon today. The increase was the biggest since September 2004. Prices rose 0.5 percent in January from December.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said this month inflation is expected to accelerate even as the risk of a U.S. recession increases. Central banks face a “minor replay'' of the stagflation of the 1970s as inflation picks up and economic growth slows, former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said.
“Growth is slowing and prices are rising,'' said Chun Chong Woo, senior economist at SC First Bank Ltd. in Seoul. “The central bank is faced with the task of having to refrain from raising rates and stabilize prices at the same time.''
Chun expects the central bank to trim rates by 75 basis points in the first half of this year to help sustain economic growth.
Rising food and fuel costs are pushing up prices around the region. Thailand's inflation rose at the fastest pace in 18 months in January, a report showed today.
Oil Prices
Rising oil prices push up costs for companies and also South Korea's import bill. The price of Dubai crude oil, South Korea's benchmark, jumped 52 percent since the beginning of last year. South Korea purchases 97 percent of its energy it needs from overseas.
The yield on the three-year government bond was rose 1 basis point to 5.05 percent at 4:01 p.m. in Seoul.
On top of rising costs, reports showed South Korean manufacturers' confidence dropped to a one-year low and factory production fell for a second month, signs the economy may be slowing. The central bank forecasts economic growth will cool to 4.7 percent this year from a 4.9 percent expansion last year.
South Korea's Kospi index has dropped 14 percent this year on concern a possible U.S. recession will roil global economic growth just as rising costs damp corporate earnings absolutely free credit report.
Central Bank
Consumer price inflation will accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2008 from 2.5 percent last year, the central bank said on Dec. 5 in its half-yearly economic outlook. The central bank aims to keep inflation between 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent target range.
“The Bank of Korea's monetary policy will have to take into account things like the very-high inflation expected in the first half of this year, still-high oil prices and the possibility of the U.S. slowdown,'' Governor Lee said Jan. 10.
The bank needs to think about “what's going to happen to inflation in the second half and our confidence indexes amid the bad signs on the U.S. economy, with priority put on inflation,'' he said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which forecasts South Korea's economic growth of 5 percent, predicts the central bank to trim rates by 75 basis points this year. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said it sees bigger chance of a rate cut this year.
Interest Rates
“Despite today's upward surprise in inflation, we maintain our view that the Bank of Korea will begin cutting its policy rate by the second quarter by 25 basis points, and another 25 basis points after that for a total reduction of 50 basis points over the coming year,'' said Frederic Neumann, economist at HSBC Global Research in Hong Kong.
The central bank's policy board members next meet on Feb. 13 to decide on interest rates. The bank in January kept the overnight call rate unchanged for a fifth month at a six-year high of 5 percent, after back-to-back increases in July and August.
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and other volatile items, rose 0.6 percent from November, today's report showed. From a year earlier, core prices gained 2.8 percent.
Industrial goods prices rose 0.7 percent from December, boosted by a 1.8 percent gain in oil product costs, the report showed. The cost of agricultural, dairy and fisheries goods gained 0.2 percent from December.
Source