Finance & Business World

Singapore’s economy probably returned to growth this quarter as manufacturing rebounded, putting the nation on course to surpass Malaysia’s output with the world’s second-fastest growth rate this year.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 9.4 percent in the three months through Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it contracted 18.7 percent, according to the median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The economy grew 13.2 percent from a year earlier, the median of 12 estimates showed. The report is due at 8 a.m. on Jan. 3.

Asia has led a global recovery this year as growth in developed markets was restrained by Europe’s sovereign credit woes and U.S. unemployment that remains above 9 percent. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said Singapore can’t maintain this year’s pace of expansion, forecast at 15 percent, and his policy makers have moved to cool the property market and allowed faster currency gains to tame prices.

“Inflation risks for Singapore appear to be tilted toward the upside,” said Alvin Liew, a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. After the boost from manufacturing this year, Singapore’s tourism and financial services industries will increasingly drive growth in 2011, spurred by “rising regional domestic demand from China and Southeast Asia,” he said.

Lee may give some economic estimates in his annual New Year’s Eve message later today. The government expects GDP to expand as much as 6 percent in 2011, and its forecast for this year would make the city of 5 million people the fastest-growing economy in the world after Qatar’s, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

Overtaking Malaysia

Singapore’s GDP may reach about $210 billion this year after rising at the fastest pace since independence in 1965, while the economy of Malaysia, a country 478 times its size, will expand 7 percent to $205 billion, government forecasts show. Malaysia was Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy last year, behind Indonesia and Thailand.

The Singapore dollar has climbed more than 8 percent against the U.S. currency this year, marking its biggest one- year gain since 1994 and the fourth-best performance in Asia excluding Japan. The currency, which rose 0.3 percent to S$1.2872 versus the U.S. dollar at 11:40 a.m. today, may strengthen to S$1.24 at the end of 2011, according to a central bank survey of economists published this month.

Inflation Quickens

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said in October it will steepen and widen the currency’s trading band while continuing to seek a “modest and gradual appreciation,” after undertaking a one-time revaluation in April. The central bank, which uses the exchange rate rather than a benchmark interest rate as its main tool to manage inflation, guides the Singapore dollar against a basket of currencies within an undisclosed band.

Inflation will average between 2 percent and 3 percent next year, the central bank predicts paperless payday loans. Consumer prices rose 3.8 percent in November, the biggest increase in 22 months.

Singapore, located at the southern end of the 600-mile (966-kilometer) Malacca Strait, has remained vulnerable to fluctuations in overseas demand for manufactured goods even after the government boosted financial services and tourism.

The island’s non-oil exports, which are forecast to increase 24 percent this year, are equivalent to more than half of GDP. Industrial production rose at the fastest pace in six months in November, climbing 39.8 percent from a year earlier after a 29.8 percent gain in October. In comparison, industrial output grew about 14 percent last quarter.

Ship Orders

The island’s biggest companies are boosting operations or expanding overseas as the global economy recovers from last year’s slump. DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia’s biggest bank, said this month it will take over Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.’s retail and commercial banking businesses in China.

The island has also benefited from rising visitor arrivals as new attractions such as the country’s first casinos lure tourists. The resorts run by Genting Singapore Plc and Las Vegas Sands Corp. incorporate gambling centers, restaurants, malls and a Universal Studios Inc. theme park.

Singapore Airlines Ltd., the world’s second-largest carrier by market value, said last month it would increase capacity as business travelers and holidaymakers reserve more flights.

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Fewer troubled homeowners are receiving assistance with their mortgages as government efforts to prevent foreclosures are slowing.

About 470,000 homeowners received help on their mortgages in the July-September quarter, federal regulators say. That’s a 17 percent drop from the previous quarter and a decline of 32 percent from the same period last year.

The pool of homeowners eligible to have their mortgages modified is declining, federal officials say, as banks have concluded many distressed borrowers can’t be helped payday loans for bad credit.

That is pushing up the number of foreclosed homes, which keeps home prices low. The number of completed foreclosures rose by 11.2 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous three months, according to a report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift Supervision.

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Thailand’s manufacturing output growth unexpectedly slowed in November, a sign producers may be anticipating easing global demand after a rebound lifted exports this year.

The industrial production index rose 5.6 percent last month from a year earlier, the Office of Industrial Economics said on its website today. That compares with a revised 6 percent increase in October and the 6.8 percent median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The revised October number was calculated by Bloomberg News based on data provided by the agency, which only gave the growth rate for November.

Europe’s debt crisis and U.S. unemployment that’s above 9 percent may cap overseas demand for goods by Asian manufacturers such as Bangkok-based Hana Microelectronics Pcl, which makes parts for computers and phones including Apple Inc.’s iPhone. Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said last week Southeast Asia’s largest economy after Indonesia may expand more than 4 percent in 2011, slowing from this year’s pace.

“Industrial growth slowed as the recovery in the U.S. and Europe weighs down the demand for electronics exports,” Chandara Lim, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, said before the report. “Tighter monetary settings could weaken private investment and slow manufacturing orders over the upcoming month.”

Rate Increase

The central bank raised its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent earlier this month, signaling policy makers view inflation as a bigger threat than slowing growth. Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said Dec. 24 Thailand can’t have “low wages, a weak baht and low interest rates forever.”

Thai export growth accelerated to 28.5 percent in November, and shipments should rise by as much as 28 percent this year, Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said last week.

Still, the baht has appreciated more than 10 percent this year, the best performer in Asia after the Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit, raising concern that Thailand’s goods may become more expensive relative to its regional rivals. Korn said Dec. 15 the baht will probably extend gains next year and capital flows will make the currency volatile.

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It’s time for my annual surefire predictions for the New Year. As usual, I won’t waste your time predicting what the stock market will do, since nobody knows. Instead, I’ll concentrate on predictions you can do something about:

Saving ‘Solutions’ Sought

With millions of Baby Boomers lacking the means to retire, we’ll see a growing national debate on how to encourage if not force Americans to save, along with calls to simplify the tortuous maze of workplace and individual retirement plans.

But you don’t need to wait. If you’re not sure whether it’s better to save in a 401(k) plan or an IRA, for example, just pick one, or better yet, both.

Don’t use the excuse that markets are treacherous not to save. You can pick stable investments rather than stocks.

And don’t agonize so much that you become paralyzed. If you can’t decide between paying down debt or adding to your savings, do a little bit of both. But do something.

Fuming Over Fees

Despite threats of additional government regulation

C&R Mechanical Co. promoted Amy Boschert to director of business development. She started in mechanical construction in 2005 and has been part of C&R’s service and building solutions division since 2007.

Boschert has completed numerous training programs through the Mechanical Contractors Association of America and previously earned professional certification for Professional Selling Skills while at Berkshire Hathaway Co low fee cash advance.

C&R Mechanical, based in Bridgeton, designs and installs mechanical HVAC and process systems for commercial, industrial and health care clients; offers maintenance and emergency HVAC service, and makes piping, sheet metal duct and fittings.

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India’s government took emergency measures to cool onion prices after excess rainfall damaged crops and contributed to an acceleration in food inflation to a six-week high.

An index measuring wholesale prices of agricultural products including lentils, rice and vegetables compiled by the commerce ministry rose 12.13 percent in the week ended Dec. 11 from a year earlier, a trade ministry report showed in New Delhi today. The index gained 9.46 percent the previous week.

India, the world’s second-biggest onion grower, is trying to boost imports and has halted exports of all varieties of the vegetable, a key ingredient in the country’s fiery curries and biryani dishes. Opposition parties have criticized Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government for failing to check rising prices and the central bank has raised interest rates to contain inflation that’s triggered labor strikes and public protests.

“Everyone, irrespective of economic condition, would have to use it on a day-to-day basis and it is a very sensitive item both from an economic point of view and political point of view,” Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays Bank Plc’s investment banking division, told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. “They cannot ignore it.”

Onion prices jumped 33.5 percent from a year earlier, the wholesale food report showed. Retail prices of onions have risen from as little as 10 rupees ($0.22) a kilogram in June to as much as 85 rupees, the Business Standard newspaper said today.

Pakistan Onions

The country reduced the import duty for onions to zero and ordered state-owned trading companies to import the vegetable, trade secretary Rahul Khullar said yesterday. The government has banned onion exports indefinitely.

India is importing the crop from neighboring Pakistan in a bid to contain prices, the Press Trust of India said yesterday. The government, in an advertisement in the Indian Express newspaper today, said that prices are likely to decline going forward.

Food prices aren’t dropping enough and an “upside risk” to inflation still persists, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn told reporters yesterday. The central bank predicts the benchmark wholesale-price inflation rate may slow to 5.5 percent by March 31 from 7.48 percent in November.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao may resume monetary tightening in January after keeping borrowing costs on hold at a Dec. 16 policy meeting, said economists including Jay Shankar, chief economist at Religare Capital Markets Ltd. in Mumbai. The central bank has lifted interest rates six times in 2010.

The wholesale food-price index reading for the week ended Dec. 11 climbed 2.26 percent to 185.8 from a week earlier.

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With just two days to go before Christmas, the country

Swiss exports declined in November as a stronger franc made goods less competitive abroad and the economic recovery lost some momentum.

Exports, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 3.4 percent from October, when they rose a revised 2.3 percent, the Federal Customs Office in Bern said in an e-mailed statement today faxless payday advance. Imports fell 3.3 percent from October, when they increased a revised 1.7 percent. The trade surplus was 1.93 billion Swiss francs, down from 2.05 billion francs.

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An investment firm owned by Dubai’s ruler says it has reached a deal with leading creditors to extend the terms on $2.5 billion worth of debt.

Dubai International Capital said Friday the deal will give it six more years to pay back $2 billion of the debt and four more years for another $500 million.

The deal was reached “in principle” with lenders representing the bulk of the debt and must still be approved by smaller creditors.

DIC is also naming its 41-year-old chief investment officer David Smoot as CEO, replacing Anand Krishnan payday loans.

The firm is part of conglomerate Dubai Holding and owns stakes in several companies, including medical imaging firm Alliance Medical and British hotel chain Travelodge Group.

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Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in December at the fastest pace since April 2005 as orders and the factory workweek increased.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index unexpectedly rose to 24.3 from 22.5 last month. The gauge was forecast to decrease to 15, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Growth in China and other emerging economies, corporate purchases of new equipment and stronger consumer spending are bolstering production. Manufacturing may keep powering an economic recovery that Fed policy makers this week said has been slow to create jobs.

“It certainly adds to evidence that growth is accelerating,” said Jim O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global Inc. in New York. “There is pretty good momentum going into the new year.”

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 59 economists ranged from 5 to 20.5.

Stocks were little changed after the manufacturing figures. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,235.36 at 10:39 a.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, pushing up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.54 percent from 3.53 percent late yesterday.

Jobless Claims

Another report from the Labor Department today showed fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits last week, a sign the labor market is improving. Applications for unemployment insurance dropped by 3,000 to 420,000.

The Philadelphia Fed bank’s new orders measure climbed to 14.6, the highest since February, from 10.4 in November. A measure of the average workweek increased to 19.3 in December, the highest since March 2004, indicating hiring may soon pick up.

The shipments gauge decreased to 7.3 from 16.8 last month. The employment index fell to 5.1 from 13.3 last month, which was the highest since August 2007 payday loans lenders.

The index of prices paid jumped to 51.2, the highest since July 2008, from 34 the prior month, while its gauge of prices received increased to a two-year high of 10.7 from minus 2.1.

Empire State

The overall Philadelphia Fed’s index isn’t composed of the individual measures, so some economists consider it a gauge of sentiment among manufacturers. The New York Fed’s factory measure, released yesterday, rebounded to 10.6 this month from minus 11.1 in November.

Economists monitor the New York and Philadelphia Fed factory reports for clues about the Institute for Supply Management national figures on manufacturing during the month.

The ISM will release its report on Jan. 3. The measure last month fell to 56.6 from a five-month high of 56.9.

Manufacturing makes up about 11 percent of the economy and is getting a boost from expanding world trade. Exports rose 3.2 percent in October to the highest level since August 2008, according to Commerce Department data released Dec. 10. Business spending on equipment and software advanced at a 17 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

Broadcom Corp., the biggest maker of chips for television set-top boxes, yesterday increased its fourth-quarter revenue projection to about $1.9 billion, the top end of an earlier forecast range. Irvine, California-based Broadcom is making inroads in the mobile-phone market, supplying radio chips for handsets from South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co. and Finland’s Nokia Oyj.

“We have seen now an extended period of time of recovery in the components business,” Paul Reilly , chief financial officer of Arrow Electronics Inc., said yesterday at a conference in New York. Melville, New York-based Arrow is a distributor of electronic components and computer products to industrial customers.

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