Finance & Business World

China is expecting foreign trade growth to slow this year to around 10 percent amid a grim outlook for exports, a state news agency reported Saturday.

The world’s second-largest economy’s foreign trade will be hurt by weak external demand, increasing trade competition, a stronger Chinese currency and other factors, the official Xinhua News Agency cited an official from the country’s top economic planning agency as saying.

“We expect more difficulties in foreign trade and the export situation will be grim in 2012, especially in the first half of the year,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, according to Xinhua.

Last year, China’s foreign trade grew 22.5 percent to $3.6 trillion, according to data from the official General Administration of Customs released earlier in the week.

The data also showed that exports in December rose 13.4 percent, down slightly from November’s growth rate. In a new that sign the economy is slowing, import growth showed an unexpectedly sharp drop, falling to 11.8 percent, barely above half the previous month’s gain payday loans.

On Saturday, Zhang told a forum in Beijing that improving tax and insurance policies and providing financial support for small trading companies could help stabilize export growth, Xinhua said.

China’s relatively robust growth has been a rare bright spot for a struggling global economy. But growth has slowed in recent months after Beijing tightened lending and investment curbs to prevent overheating.

A slump in demand for Chinese goods abroad has prompted the government to reverse course and promise to help struggling exporters and shore up growth with more bank lending and other measures. It is unclear what impact the measures will have.

Chinese export growth has fallen steadily since August as Europe’s debt crisis and high U.S. unemployment hurt demand. But it has stayed in double digits, showing the competitive strength of Chinese exporters in global markets.

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World stock markets rose Friday, driven higher by a successful bond issue in Europe that eased worries over the continent’s sovereign debt crisis.

Benchmark oil rose to nearly $100 per barrel and the dollar fell against the euro and the yen.

European shares rose in early trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.6 percent to 5,694.38. Germany’s DAX gained 0.7 percent to 6,221.96 and the CAC-40 in Paris gained 0.9 percent 3,229.17. Wall Street, too, was set to open higher, with Dow Jones industrial futures up 0.1 percent to 12,424. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1 percent at 1,293.

Asian shares were mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.4 percent to close at 8,500.02 and South Korea’s Kospi index moved 0.6 percent at 1,875.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index vacillated before closing in positive territory, up 0.6 percent to 19,204.42.

Australia’s S&P ASX 200 was 0.4 percent higher at 4,195.90. Benchmarks in Singapore, Indonesia, India and Malaysia also rose.

But mainland Chinese shares fell as investors continued to cash in on recent gains. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.3 percent to 2,244.58, while the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped 3.5 percent to 845.93.

“The market will be volatile for the next one or two weeks after this correction, since there is just no support for the market to rise in the long term,” said Xu Xiaoyu, an analyst at China Investment Securities, based in Beijing.

PetroChina, the country’s biggest oil and gas company and the Shanghai benchmark’s biggest component, gained 1.4 percent as oil prices rose to near $100 a barrel in Asia on Friday on worries over supply tightness.

Elsewhere, raw materials and industrial companies advanced, following their U.S. counterparts higher. Japanese heavy equipment maker Komatsu Ltd guaranteed payday loans. jumped 4.1 percent and Hitachi Construction Machinery gained 3.8 percent.

Energy Resources of Australia soared 6 percent and Paladin Energy Ltd., an Australian uranium miner, gained 3.1 percent. But shares in Australia’s QBE Insurance group dropped 3.1 percent, after the company warned its earnings could halve following a spate of natural disasters in 2011.

South Korean tech shares advanced, with Samsung Electronics Co., the country’s largest company, up 1.8 percent and Hynix Semiconductor, a global leader in chip-making, surging 4.1 percent. Its largest banking group, Woori Financial Holdings Co., jumped 3.9 percent.

Strong bond auctions in Italy and Spain on Thursday pushed stocks higher. Italy was able to sell one-year bonds at a rate of just 2.735 percent, less than half the 5.95 percent rate it had to pay last month. Spain was able to raise double the amount of money it had sought to raise in its own bond sale as demand for its debt was strong.

Investors have been worried that Italy and Spain might get dragged into the region’s debt crisis. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been forced to get relief from their lenders after their borrowing costs spiked to levels the countries could no longer afford.

Benchmark oil for February delivery rose 78 cents to $99.88 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract tumbled $2 to finish at $99.10 per barrel in New York on Thursday.

In currency trading, the euro rose to $1.2843 from $1.2827 late Thursday in New York. The dollar was slightly down at 76.73 yen from 76.76 yen.

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Banks are hoarding the European Central Bank

So the U.S. economy added hundreds of thousands of jobs last month and everything is fantastic, right?

Well, not exactly. More than 40,000 of those jobs were couriers and messengers, which were in demand during the holidays because of the increased focus on online shopping rather than retail. But these jobs tend to be temporary seasonal hires and not permanent additions.

"People are happy to get those jobs for the time they have them, but come January, they’re out looking for jobs again," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 200,000 jobs, which was stronger than economists expected, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.5%.

Obama proposes pay hike

But spokeswomen for FedEx (, Fortune 500) and UPS (, Fortune 500) confirmed that they increased temporary hiring during the 2011 holiday season even more than the year before. However, many of those jobs have already evaporated.

"The hiring boost this holiday season was greater than the prior holiday season," said Kara Ross of UPS, noting that her company hired 55,000 temporary workers for the 2011 holiday season, an increase of 5,000 from the year before credit reports free.

Ross said that many of those new hires were drivers, driver helpers, loaders and unloaders. Many of them won’t remain on the payrolls after the holiday season, she said, though the level of attrition is yet to be determined.

"It just depends on our volume loads," she said. "Some of them we might keep on; some of them we might not."

Carla Boyd of FedEx said her company hired 20,000 temporary seasonal workers from October to December, an increase of 17,000 from the prior holiday season.

Unemployment rate, state by state

"There’s an incredible holiday surge," said Boyd. "We had our busiest day in history on Dec. 12."

On that day, FedEx had 17 million shipments, compared to the year-ago holiday peak of 15.6 million. But the annual average is 8.5 million, so FedEx doesn’t need that many workers year-round.

"The problem is that you have a lot of reporters touting this as a really strong report, and if that creates a view among policy makers that the economy is on the mend, then that undermines the need to do anything," said Baker. 

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Maybe the best person to take on issue number one — the economy — should be an economist?

At least, that’s the thought of Laurence Kotlikoff, an economics professor at Boston University. He’s planning on throwing his hat in the ring next week, announcing he’s running for president as a third-party candidate.

"I think I may be the first economist to run for president," Kotlikoff said. "We see economists now running Greece and Italy. It’s not everyday that an economist decides to work this way for his country — but I’m one of those cases."

Kotlikoff has never before run for public office. His goal is to secure a place on the 2012 ballot as an independent through a new online nomination site, AmericansElect.org.

The nonpartisan group, which has raised $22 million so far, aims to put an alternative candidate on the ballot, chosen by online voters through a three-stage primary.

CNN: New group paves way for alternative 2012 choice

In addition to his role as an economics professor, Kotlikoff is the author of 15 books and a regular columnist for Bloomberg.com. He has also served as a consultant to Fortune 500 companies, foreign governments, central banks and international agencies like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Kotlikoff’s platform centers on what he calls the "Purple Plan." Purple, because he hopes it will appeal to both blue Democrats and red Republicans, and all Americans in between.

Political observers question whether a nonpartisan candidate could have a serious shot at winning, and it’s not as if Kotlikoff is the only alternative candidate out there. Currently 165 people, not in the Republican or Democratic parties, are on file with the Federal Election Commission as presidential candidates.

Still, he hopes his campaign will have an impact saving account pay day loan.

"I’m hopeful that my candidacy will be taken very seriously," he said. "And that young people in particular will realize this is someone who is really focused on their interests."

If he does win, Kotlikoff pledges to eliminate income taxes on both individuals and businesses, as well as estate and gift taxes. Instead, he would institute a progressive sales tax and inheritance tax, and make the payroll tax highly progressive.

Kotlikoff would also replace the current health care system with one under which all Americans receive a voucher each year to purchase a standard health plan from the private-plan provider of their choice. In true economist speak, he says he would reallocate the roughly 10% of GDP that the federal and state government currently spend on Medicare, Medicaid and health exchanges, to pay for this program.

GOP 2012: What they (wouldn’t) cut

"I’m not suggesting that only an economist is qualified to be President, but I am suggesting that, other things equal, economic problems are likely to be better understood and fixed by an economist than a career politician or someone who has, for example, spent his life running a pizza chain," Kotlikoff wrote on his campaign website Kotlikoff2012.org.

Kotlikoff says he does not have a party affiliation and he plans to file an official statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission next week.

He previously worked as a senior economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors, but voted for President Carter. He has also served as an economic adviser to former Senator Mike Gravel, who switched from the Democratic Party to the Libertarian Party amid his 2008 bid for president. 

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Three Federal Reserve policy makers called on the U.S. government to try new programs to revive the housing market while differing over whether the central bank should take more steps to cut borrowing costs.

New York Fed President William C. Dudley said in New Jersey today that

Europe won modest respite from its debt crisis Wednesday as Germany and Portugal borrowed with relative ease ahead of a hazard-filled few weeks for the 17 nations that use the euro.

But Greece’s new prime minister warned that his debt-crippled country has only three months to come up with new reforms so his country can stay in the eurozone and avoid a potential default _ a reminder of how the crisis can flare up at any time. And the news that a major Italian bank had to offer an unexpectedly large discount to raise new capital showed just how wary investors are of Europe’s shaky banks.

So far this year, markets have pushed concerns about Europe to one side, especially as countries have managed to raise the money they need.

Germany, the biggest contributor in Europe’s bailouts, managed to sell euro4.06 billion ($5.3 billion) in its benchmark ten-year bonds Wednesday at an average yield of 1.93 percent, down on the previous 1.98 percent it had to pay. And Portugal, which was bailed out last April, paid a markedly lower interest rate to borrow euro1 billion ($1.3 billion) in three-month treasury bills.

But Italian bank UniCredit saw its share price tumble over 10 percent on the news it was selling new shares at a large 69 percent discount to Tuesday’s closing price. UniCredit is trying to raise euro7.5 billion ($9.8 billion) to meet new European requirements for banks to thicken their financial cushions against possible losses.

Banks are an integral part of the debt crisis because they hold government bonds. A default or steep fall in the value of government bonds could inflict heavy losses on banks and choke off credit to the European economy. That’s why the regulatory authorities want Europe’s banks to raise their buffers by euro115 billion ($150 billion) over the next few months.

The German and Portuguese auctions come ahead of severe tests for eurozone leaders as they try to navigate their way out of a crisis over too much debt in some countries.

Eurozone governments are struggling to convince financial markets that indebted governments will not default and should be able to borrow at affordable rates to repay debts as they come due. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have needed bailouts, while much larger Italy and Spain have seen their borrowing costs rise ominously.

Italy, the recent focus of the crisis, must borrow to cover euro53 billion ($69 billion) in expiring debt in the first quarter alone in debt auctions beginning Jan. 13. That will test whether the government of new Prime Minister Mario Monti is making progress in regaining market confidence through budget cuts and efforts to improve weak economic growth.

Further trouble could come from a slowing eurozone economy that may already have shrunk in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, Greece must also win approval of a second, euro130 billion ($169 billion) bailout, without which it can’t pay its debts, and strike a deal with creditors for a 50 percent reduction in their holdings of Greek debt to try to put the country back on its feet.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos warned union leaders and business groups Wednesday that decisions made in the next few weeks, ahead of a new visit by international debt inspectors, will determine whether Greece remains in the 17-nation eurozone or reverts to its pre-2002 currency, the drachma.

Portugal looks like it’s in better shape at the moment. The rate it had to pay at its auction fell to an eight-month low of 4.346 percent. Although Portugal cannot tap long-term bond markets at a reasonable price, it has sought to maintain a market presence by issuing shorter-term debt.

Analysts said the improvement may represent a sign that Portugal is regaining the markets’ confidence as it carries out spending cuts and revenue increases in return for its euro78 billion ($102 billion) bailout.

“There’s been an improvement in the risk perception of Portuguese debt, which has driven rates down” said Filipe Silva, debt manager at Portuguese financial group Banco Carregosa. “Now we just need to see whether it holds.”

Germany’s auction was better than one in November which raised fears that Europe’s debt crisis was spiraling out of control when the government sold only 65 percent of debt on offer.

Still, there was some concern over the amount of German bunds investors actually wanted Wednesday. Bids for euro5.14 billion ($6.7 billion) worth of bonds exceeded the full amount on offer of euro5 billion ($6.5 billion), but only barely, counting euro943 million ($1.23 billion) the government kept back for secondary market operations.

“Yes, it was covered, so that’s a relief,” said Marc Ostwald, a markets strategist at Monument Securities. “On the other hand, the coverage was poor.”

Germany can borrow cheaply because its economy is the strongest in the eurozone but concerns about the costs of bailing out fellow eurozone nations have raised questions about Germany’s finances as well.

Wednesday’s auction results follow a recent trend. On Tuesday, the Netherlands saw its borrowing rates fell to near zero percent in a pair of short-term auctions, in a sign that investors are searching out what they consider to be Europe’s safer assets.

Italy also sold large chunks of debt last week and analysts say the run of smooth auctions may be largely due to a massive euro489 billion ($636 billion) infusion of cheap, 3-year credit to eurozone banks by the European Central Bank.

Some of that cheap money may be being used by some banks to buy higher-yielding short-term debt. Italy’s longer-term borrowing rate in the markets remain at dangerously elevated levels near 7 percent, a point that prompted Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts.

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President Barack Obama is pushing his economic message in Ohio, brandishing his presidential megaphone in a politically important state to make certain his appeal to the middle class is heard amid the boisterous start of the Republican campaign for the White House.

Obama was traveling Wednesday to the most Democratic congressional district in Ohio, a Cleveland suburb, a day after Mitt Romney won Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses by just eight votes. Obama’s trip signals the White House’s intent to keep the president in the public eye even as the political world focuses on the GOP’s selection process.

The White House’s choice of Ohio for Obama’s first presidential trip of 2012 underscores the state’s high-profile role in presidential politics. It is a swing state that went for George W. Bush in 2004 and for Obama in 2008. A top manufacturing state, Ohio has seen its jobless rate follow the national pattern; unemployment was 8.5 percent in November compared with 9.6 percent a year before.

Obama set the tone Tuesday for a White House strategy that aims to maintain pressure on congressional Republicans while promoting an economic plan that serves as much as a policy prescription as it does a political platform for the general election.

Addressing Iowa Democrats by teleconference as the GOP caucus counting was still under way, Obama described Republicans as embracing a “theory that says we’re going to cut taxes for the wealthiest among us and roll back regulations on things like clean air and health care reform, Wall Street reform, and somehow that automatically that assures that everybody is able to succeed.”

“I don’t believe that,” Obama declared.

Pressing his economic agenda, Obama has said expanding the middle class is “the defining issue of our time.” His spokesman, Jay Carney, on Tuesday called it “his No. 1 focus.”

As defined by the president and by his advisers, his economic argument is that the middle class is facing a “make or break moment.” On that score, Obama still has a few confrontations with Congress in the year ahead.

He still wants to extend a payroll tax cut for all of 2012. Republicans avoided being blamed for a tax increase last month when House GOP leaders agreed to a two-month extension personal loans for people with bad credit. A longer version will have to be decided by the end of February. Obama is also likely to point to elements of a jobs package he advanced last year that failed in the face of Republican opposition.

Obama is also at odds with Senate Republicans over his nomination of Richard Cordray as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a central feature of new bank regulations that Congress approved and Obama signed in 2010. Republicans are blocking Cordray’s appointment, effectively hamstringing the bureau’s work. Battling Wall Street overreach has been a recurrent Obama theme as he advocates for the middle class.

Signaling that he would continue to draw sharp lines between the middle class and the wealthy, Obama told the Iowa Democrats in his videoconference Tuesday that he would insist on the rich paying more in taxes.

“If we’re going to make the investments that we need for our kids at the same time as we’re controlling our deficit, then there’s nothing wrong with saying to millionaires and billionaires that we’re going to let your tax cuts expire,” Obama said. “The other party has a fundamentally different philosophy.”

Administration officials say they were especially encouraged by the public’s response to Obama’s call for extending the payroll tax cut and indicate Obama will make such appeals repeatedly to gain leverage over Congress and Republicans, in particular.

“There are more things that need to be done,” Carney said Tuesday. “There are elements of the jobs act that we believe, as we did from the beginning, merit bipartisan consideration and support. This country is in crying need of work on its infrastructure.”

In speaking at Shaker Heights High School on Wednesday, Obama is returning to a Cleveland suburb that he visited in 2009 while pushing his health care overhaul plan. Obama also planned to meet with a family at their home, a tactic Obama has employed before to personalize his agenda.

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