When the market falls as rapidly as it has lately, you’ll inevitably hear analysts proclaiming that stocks are now bargains.
At one level, they’re stating the obvious: Like shirts on the department store’s bargain rack, companies are suddenly 5, 10 or 20 percent cheaper than they were a few months ago. The current crop of bargain-hunters, though, think they’ve found something more significant than a quick markdown.
By some traditional measures, stocks are as cheap as they have been in decades. The stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, for example, sell for about 12 times the profit they earned in the past year. That’s called the price-earnings ratio, and its long-term average is around 16.
The S&P 500 companies also are trading at less than twice their book value, which is the accounting measure of their worth. Historically, a typical number would be more like 3 times book. The last time the price-to-book measure got this low was in March 2009, which in hindsight turned out to be a terrific buying opportunity.
Some money managers see a similar opportunity today. “We really think the market is pretty darned cheap,” says David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners in Ladue. “There’s this fear of what may happen in Europe, but if you get just a whiff of relief, a whiff that maybe we’ve priced in the worst of Greece, the U.S. stock market is like a coiled spring.”
In other words, he’s buying and waiting for a bounce. With short-term interest rates at near zero, Rolfe adds, stocks have never been more attractive in comparison to Treasury bills and other cashlike investments.
When someone talks about ratios, though, it’s important to look at both numerator and denominator. A plunging stock price might make the price-earnings ratio look attractive, but how reliable are the earnings?
After all, stocks didn’t look overpriced in 2007, but then a severe recession turned profits into losses and the market lost half its value.
Perhaps, then, we should put a little less faith in analysts’ estimates of what a company might earn next year. If earnings are volatile, maybe the classic P/E ratio can’t tell us whether stocks are cheap or expensive.
Robert Shiller, a finance professor at Yale University, tackled this problem by constructing a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. It compares today’s stock price to a 10-year average of company profits. By his measure, today’s stock market isn’t cheap. In fact, the so-called Shiller P/E stands at almost precisely its 50-year average.
The Shiller concept is a good tool for assessing today’s market, says Mark Keller, chief investment officer at Confluence Investment Management in Webster Groves.
“Earnings are so volatile in recent years,” he explained. “You could argue that today’s profit margins are not sustainable.”
As a percentage of the U.S. gross domestic product, corporate profits are already at a record level. “Maybe we’ll go to a new all-time high, but we find it hard to believe things could get much better,” Keller said.
Perhaps, then, we’ve hit the profit peak for this cycle. If profits can only grow as fast as GDP