Norway must remove government stimulus or risk faster interest-rate increases that would strengthen the krone and stifle an export recovery, Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen said.
“My main task is to try to prevent fiscal policy putting an extra burden on the krone,” Johnsen, named to the post last month, said in a Nov. 20 interview in Oslo. “The extraordinary efforts of the fiscal policy should be phased out.”
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s Labor-led government, which was re-elected in September, will breach expenditure guidelines for a second consecutive year after using a record amount of the nation’s $440 billion oil wealth to revive the economy in 2009. The pre-election pledge to spend more came after the world’s sixth-biggest oil exporter, which boasts Europe’s lowest unemployment rate, had already emerged from recession in the second quarter.
Norway’s recovery trajectory has forced interest rates higher. Norges Bank on Oct. 28 became the first rate-setter in Europe to lift borrowing costs since the height of the global slump. Governor Svein Gjedrem increased the deposit rate by a quarter point to 1.5 percent and his bank predicts the rate will average 1.75 percent this year and 2.25 percent in 2010, rising to an average of 4.25 percent by 2012.
“If we spend too much money” it would lead “to a faster increase in interest rates and this could have an impact on the exchange rate and on the competitiveness of our businesses,” Johnsen said.
Krone Best Performer
The prospect of higher rates has helped the krone, making it the best performer of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg since the end of June. The krone is up 7.3 percent against the euro and 14 percent against the dollar in the period.
That’s cutting into profits at manufacturers like Norsk Hydro ASA, Europe’s second-largest aluminum producer. For every krone the Norwegian currency strengthens against the dollar, based on an exchange rate of 5 instant payday loan.5 kroner, Norsk Hydro’s earnings before interest and tax would be cut by 1.6 billion kroner ($282 million), according to its third-quarter presentation.
Norway’s mainland economy, which excludes oil, gas and shipping, will grow 2.8 percent next year and 3.2 percent in 2011, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OECD Warning
The government’s spending plans have attracted criticism from the Paris-based organization, which on Nov. 19 warned of the need for “strong fiscal consolidation” and said that “sizeable” policy tightening is “desirable” after a “tremendous” stimulus.
Johnsen, who served as finance minister under Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland from 1990 to 1996, faces the challenge of reining in public spending while keeping his party’s election pledge to support welfare and employment.
Norway, which is also the world’s second biggest natural gas exporter, puts most of its petroleum revenue in a sovereign wealth fund established during Johnsen’s first term in office.
The Government Pension Fund - Global, which started to invest Norway’s oil wealth in 1996, was created to avoid stoking inflation by preventing oil and gas income from seeping through to consumption. Fiscal spending guidelines limit the use of oil money to plug budget deficits to 4 percent of the fund.
Johnsen isn’t promising a sudden shift in his government’s stance.
The return to the spending rule “must be gradual,” Johnsen said. “I will try what I can in order to get back on the 4 percent path during this period. But it is going to be difficult.”
Editors: Chris Kirkham, Tasneem Brogger.
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